Traffic and Revenue Study (T&R)
Traffic and revenue studies are crucial for thoroughly evaluating investments and estimating revenue for tolled facilities. These studies are especially vital for public-private partnerships (P3s), as the private sector requires significant clarity before committing.
Traffic and revenue studies begin with a thorough understanding of observed travel characteristics. This includes details like trip origins and destinations, the purpose of trips, vehicle occupancies, trip frequencies, volumes and variations in travel patterns over time, days, and seasons, as well as transit usage. Utilizing this data, along with revealed and stated preferences surveys, helps to calculate a representative value of time for each group of road users, given that the value of time plays a more critical role in traffic and revenue studies compared to regional models.
Regional models are developed to identify future traffic and network capacity needs and therefore often make data and analysis judgments that produce upside values. On the other hand, toll estimation requires reasonably forecasting lower traffic and toll revenue estimates as this maximizes the likelihood of meeting revenue targets.
Toll road forecasts require annual estimates of demand and toll revenues. Therefore, they require studying all times of day year-round. Conversely, regional models concentrate on morning and afternoon peak periods, as these are key for identifying future capacity and improvement needs.
Many regional models only incorporate truck traffic as a proportion of overall link volumes. However, truck traffic can represent a significant revenue component for a toll road. Therefore, if justified, commercial traffic should be separately forecasted in a traffic and revenue study.
In traffic and revenue models, it may be necessary to utilize state-of-the-art modeling techniques to develop a more reliable forecast. This includes activity-based modeling, mesoscopic dynamic assignment models, and micro-simulation models with dynamic assignment (especially for managed lanes).
